The Nigerian business environment didn't anticipate what Dangote did or will do with this refinery by placing it inside Nigeria. It's obvious from the responses I'm reading.
There has never been anything like this refinery or any investment in Nigeria; it's so large that it has distorted not just the market it plays in but many other ecosystems.
It's like someone coming into Lagos today and building five million one- and two-bedroom flats, then saying rents can be paid monthly. What happens to the "landlord lobby"? What happens to rents in Lagos? Once you visualize that, you'll see where this is going. This is a game changer.
The refinery is still new; it's still getting its sea legs. Once it calibrates its crude supply and locks in distribution, any firm importing petroleum-based products won't compete in Nigeria. Monopoly? No, other billionaires refused to invest, allowing one man a blue ocean.
It doesn't stop at petroleum. Soon, with the FX volume Dangote brings in, he'll be the swing determinant of exchange rates in Nigeria, like NNPC remittances in the past.
Soji Graphics join to them to predict Dangote will start buying filling stations in West Africa.
What we're witnessing is the latest and first salvo at changing the game of fuel retail not only in Nigeria but in West Africa. We can't wait for another shot to be fired!
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